Croatia: Making a Success of EU Membership
By Andrew Waterman
Whilst I sat reading the complimentary tourist brochure handed out to each delegate as I waited for the conference to start, I contemplated whether the event would just be a one-sided appraisal of Croatia’s accession to the EU. However, whilst the mood amongst the policy-makers, diplomats and academics present was largely optimistic, this was also balanced with a fair amount of caution. In opening the conference, Professor Phil Powrie made reference both to, in his opinion, the huge achievement that EU membership represents for Croatia, and the inauspicious period that accession has taken place in. The stated aim of the conference – jointly hosted by the Croatian Embassy to the UK and the Centre for Research on the European Matrix (CRonEM) – was to, “investigate how Croatia can make the most of the opportunities it now enjoys as a Member State of the EU while addressing the challenges membership provides”. As such, after a keynote speech from Ambassador Dr Ivan Grdešić, the day was split into three themes: EU-level Politics, Citizens and Civil Society and Economics.
EU-level Politics
In his contribution Dr John O’Brennan, drawing on his knowledge of Irish, Romanian and Bulgarian politics, argued that there are four key areas that Croatia must focus on for its membership to be considered a success. Firstly, it was argued that membership must not be seen as a ‘magical panacea’ and that issues that had to be overcome to fulfill the EU’s conditionality (such as corruption and human rights) must not be rolled back now accession has been achieved. The case of Ireland was shown as an example of how EU membership does not guarantee continued progress if it is not used as a mechanism to support and enhance public policy. This also related to Dr Brennan’s second point, that Croatia must learn to ‘play the game’ at the EU level, building a reputation as a good ally and utilising the role of the Council Presidency effectively to enhance its status. Thirdly, the issue of ‘communicating Europe’ – by overcoming the democratic deficit and elite-citizen gap -was spoken of. This also linked into the final aspect, which focused on the role of national parliaments and the necessity of playing an active role in the link between Europe and the nation state rather than the role of the ‘victim’.
Citizens and Civil Society
Dr Simona Guerra from the University of Leicester introduced the next section of the conference which focused on her research interest of attitudes amongst young people to the EU before and after accession. In the case of Croatia, Dr Guerra highlighted that Euroscepticism (both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’) had increased since 2001 as the costs rather than the benefits of EU membership became more obvious. This was shown to be the case even amongst young people, who have generally been considered to be the ‘winners’ of EU enlargement. Dr Guerra argued that a large aspect of this mood was due to the framing of the issue of accession on a nationalist basis by the media and national politicians. In this atmosphere, as in other cases, explaining the EU properly and concisely has proven very difficult. For Dr Guerra, this was a key theme in her research; that the quality of information on EU matters has not kept pace with the level of interest and that there is a distrust of politicians in general.
Professor Nenad Zakošek took a slightly broader view of the accession issue. He noted that since the breakup of Yugoslavia, Croatia had gradually gravitated towards the EU but cautiously added that, firstly, an elite-citizen support gap still exists and, secondly, that nationalism is still a large part of Croatian domestic politics. The example of the current referendum against gay marriage in Croatia (which was passed after the conference) has shown that the EU’s ‘values’ are a long way from becoming embedded in Croatian politics. The re-emergence of the Catholic Church’s role in civil society was also commented upon. Incredibly, despite having minimal time in which to collect 400,000 signatures (the number that will trigger a referendum in Croatia) over 700,000 were collected reflecting their organisational and political role as the most active part of civil society in this instance. This led Professor Zakošek to reflect on the various pathways Croatia could take now it is an EU member. Would it take the Polish path (focusing and building on a specific area, such as agriculture)? Would it ‘muddle through’ with no significant changes or benefits? Or, would it take the path of conflict – between nationalism and cosmopolitanism – as in Hungary?
Economics
This section of the conference had by far the most cautious tone reflecting the economic situation in Croatia and Europe generally. Peter Sanfey (Deputy Director for Country Strategy and Policy at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) argued that Croatia has had to overcome more difficulties than most in their accession process but also that many problems still lie ahead. Croatia has experienced negative or no growth in the last five years as well as high unemployment rates and extremely low investment and consumer confidence. So, whilst it was acknowledged that EU membership may act as a boost to the economy, it was argued that there were five priorities that Croatia must address to make a success of its membership. Firstly, Croatia should undertake institutional reforms, particularly in energy and infrastructure. It was also argued that the business environment has to improve. On this issue it was pointed out that, according World Bank rankings, Croatia lay 89th in ‘ease of doing business’, 150th in ‘protecting investors’ and 100th in ‘trading across borders’. Thirdly, it was suggested that Croatia needs to make best use of EU funds which can be a good source of growth where there are often not many other alternatives. Fourthly, it was emphasised that Croatia should take advantage of its location and trade ties within the Southern and Eastern Europe. Finally, Peter Sanfey re-affirmed the importance of states such as Croatia having a ‘narrative’ and finding a niche that other member states could identify them with.
In his analysis, Professor Alex Warleigh-Lack discussed the notion of the EU as a ‘fitness-trainer’, how the EU would affect Croatia’s economy and whether it would be able to give it a ‘six-pack’ in response to the economic crisis. The Euro Crisis and the general crisis of global capitalism was framed as ‘the turning point that wasn’t’ in the sense that many expected the EU to turn away from openly neo-liberal economic policies but instead, with the backing of the IMF, ECB and others, attempted to seek recovery through ‘increased competitiveness’. This, it was argued, has raised the possibility of ‘permanent austerity’ in certain areas of Europe as many states do not have the political and economic capability to fight back. How then, can member states get ‘fitter’? Professor Warleigh-Lack highlighted three key areas on this issue: The ‘Europe 2020’ agenda, the ‘six-pack’ and the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance (TSCG). All three, it was argued, posed huge problems for the EU’s trajectory in the next period. The two latter agendas in particular were shown to be attempts to enshrine neo-liberal policies. For example, the ‘six-pack’ – five regulations and one directive – applies to fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance and has the power to fine member states a maximum of 0.5% of GDP if Medium Term Objectives (MTO’s) on debt (essentially the Maastricht convergence criteria re-emphasised) are not met. It was pointed out that, whilst on paper it appears to be a way to ‘balance the books’, the reality is that these same fines would not only hurt the country when it is most vulnerable but also force countries into privatisation. Similarly, the TSCG gives the Commission the power to review national budget plans and their ‘fit’ with the six-pack and obliges member states to commit to MTO’s in ‘binding legislation which is preferably constitutional’. Professor Warleigh-Lack went on to openly suggest that the Commission was not ‘fit to be a fitness trainer’ as it has currently been packed with neo-liberals by President Barroso and cited the upcoming European Parliament elections as crucial in reversing this trend.
Overall the conference was a fascinating insight into Croatian and EU politics. As current events in Ukraine are showing, the region of South Eastern and Eastern Europe and the issue of the EU in general, continue to be very volatile. The cautious tone of the conference reflected, in my opinion, that accession to the EU is no longer considered a guaranteed ‘path towards prosperity’ as austerity policies and the much maligned democratic deficit have undermined the EU’s image as a progressive force in many citizens eyes. The elite-citizen gap was mentioned on many occasions during the conference and, as the issue of the Croatian referendum on gay marriage has shown, attempting to embed ‘EU values’ without a significant improvement in living standards in new member states could prove to be a major problem for the EU for many years to come.
You may also like
Written by Student Author
Archives
Calendar
M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |